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Significant differentiation inside and outside, where is the rapeseed road
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Significant differentiation inside and outside, where is the rapeseed road

  • Categories:Industry News
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  • Time of issue:2021-08-20 14:20
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(Summary description)Since 2019, the addition of rapeseed has experienced substantial destocking, and the road to rebuilding the inventory of rapeseed has not been smooth. The continued dry heat has greatly reduced the good rate of Canadian rapeseed, and the yield outlook has been significantly lowered, offsetting the potential for increase in yield brought about by the increase in planting area.

Significant differentiation inside and outside, where is the rapeseed road

(Summary description)Since 2019, the addition of rapeseed has experienced substantial destocking, and the road to rebuilding the inventory of rapeseed has not been smooth. The continued dry heat has greatly reduced the good rate of Canadian rapeseed, and the yield outlook has been significantly lowered, offsetting the potential for increase in yield brought about by the increase in planting area.

  • Categories:Industry News
  • Author:
  • Origin:
  • Time of issue:2021-08-20 14:20
  • Views:
Information

  Current focus of the vegetable oil market

  Focus 1: Why can't the rapeseed be added to the rapeseed oil?

  Since 2019, the addition of rapeseed has experienced substantial destocking, and the road to rebuilding the stock of rapeseed has not been smooth. The continued dry heat has greatly reduced the good rate of Canadian rapeseed, and the yield outlook has been significantly lowered, offsetting the potential for increase in yield brought about by the increase in planting area.

  Rape seed balance sheet is facing further tightening. Under the condition that the initial inventory was already stretched, Canadian rapeseed production fell sharply, export and crushing potential had to be compressed to match the reduction in supply, and price increases became an important means to adjust the new balance of supply and demand.

  The global rapeseed balance sheet is facing a tightening pattern.

  The domestic vegetable oil inventory is high, the transaction is deserted, and the market atmosphere is biased; the vegetable oil subject matter is small, and the continuous action is insufficient; the risk of China-Canada policy is high, and the funding intention is sluggish.

  But some marginal changes are also happening. Enterprises have become accustomed to locking in the source of imported goods several months in advance, and the high profits in the early stage have greatly increased the purchase of vegetable oil. From January to June this year, domestic rapeseed oil imports were 1.44 million tons, an increase of nearly 60% from 820,000 tons in the same period last year; rapeseed imports were 1.25 million tons, a decrease of 8.5% from 1.48 million tons in the same period last year.

  However, as profits deteriorated, companies have reduced their long-term purchases, and arrivals to Hong Kong will be significantly reduced in the future. It is reported that in the next few months, rapeseed will arrive at Hong Kong on average 3-4 ships a month, and the average monthly purchase of rapeseed oil will be about 100,000 tons, which should support Yuanyue rapeseed oil.

  Focus 2: When can domestic vegetable oil pressure be relieved?

  We expect that the high inventory pressure of domestic rapeseed oil will be relieved in October-November. In conjunction with the substantial reduction in the supply of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed oil, we will give the value of the long allocation of the rapeseed oil 01 contract.

  Focus 3: How to repair the huge upside-down profit?

  In the context of the sharp tightening of the Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed oil balance sheet, profit restoration is more difficult to achieve through a sharp decline in overseas quotations. Domestic price increases have become a high probability event, but the increase in the basis or the increase in the market?

  At present, rape oil is at an absolute high price of more than 10,000, and vegetable oil is facing a marginal weakening in the later period, and the momentum of continued upward momentum on the disk is limited. It is expected that most of the profit restoration will be realized through a rise in basis.

  Focus 4: What is the focus of other vegetable oil markets?

  Ma palm inventory is slowly rebuilt, supporting the strong vegetable oil.

  Insufficient domestic procurement to support US soybean export sales.

  USDA's August report reduced the yield of US soybeans to 50, but in the context of the current improvement in rainfall, there is limited room for continued reduction in yield.

  With the improvement of domestic soybean crushing profit, new domestic purchases will support the mid-term export sales of US soybeans under the background of insufficient purchases of ships in the fourth quarter, which will maintain the trend of strong volatility.

  The hope of the whole village--sunflower oil

  The sunflower seed production in the year of 2021/22 is expected to recover from last year’s sharp reduction in production. The increase in output of more than 7 million tons translates to nearly 3 million tons of sunflower oil, which will help make up for the shortage of rape oil and palm oil supply.

  Summary and strategy

  Rapeseed is showing strong performance around production reduction transactions. It is expected that there will still be room for further upside in the market outlook; domestic vegetable oil demand is sluggish, channel inventory is high, and the willingness of capital speculation is insufficient, causing the domestic and foreign trends of vegetable oil to diverge significantly.

  The profit inversion has greatly reduced Yuanyue’s purchase of ships. It is expected that the high domestic vegetable oil inventory pressure will be relieved in October-November. In conjunction with the sharp drop in the supply of Canadian canola and canola oil, the export potential will be reduced. 15 regular sets, 01 bean spreads widened.

  In the context of the sharp tightening of the Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed oil balance sheet, it is difficult to repair the domestic profits that have fallen sharply through the sharp decline in overseas quotations, and domestic price increases have become a high probability event. However, the price of vegetable oil is currently at an absolute high level, and vegetable oil is facing a marginal weakening in the later period, and the momentum of continued upward momentum on the disk is limited. It is expected that most of the profit restoration will be realized through a rise in basis.

  In the mid-term, US soybeans are supported by improved export sales, while the poor production of horse palm limits its inventory rebuilding speed, which supports the price of vegetable oil. However, the resumption of sunflower seed production in 21/22 will help fill the gap in the supply of rape oil and palm oil, which will limit the overall upside of vegetable oil.

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