August 19th news: Canadian analyst Cliff Jamison wrote that on August 17th, the November Canadian rapeseed futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) reached a high of approximately $940 per ton, just below the historical high of $949 per ton set on July 13th. At the close of August 18th, the November period saw a decline, marking the first time in four trading days that it had closed lower. Market investors were searching for direction. The challenge facing the rapeseed market is how to determine how high rapeseed prices need to rise in order to ensure that the tight global inventory is not depleted.
On July 13th and August 17th, rapeseed prices fell from their intraday highs and closed close to the middle of the trading range, reflecting traders hesitating at high levels. However, a significant difference between these two trading days is the difference in trading volume. On July 13th and November, approximately 20696 transactions were made, an increase of 375% from the previous trading day, reaching the third highest point in history; On August 17th, rapeseed prices rose to $940 CAD/ton, but the trading volume was only 8350 lots, an increase of 6.2% from the previous trading day and a decrease of 2.9% from the average of the previous five days.
On August 17th, the profit from rapeseed pressing was negative CAD 1.05 per ton, representing a loss in rapeseed pressing. By comparison, on June 10th, the profit from rapeseed pressing reached as high as CAD 188.80 per ton.
The inflation data released by Statistics Canada on Wednesday showed another potential rationing signal, with consumer prices rising 3.7% year-on-year in July, higher than June's 3.1% and higher than expected. The price of edible oil or salad oil increased by 15.4% (1 liter) year-on-year, far higher than June's 6.4%, and also the highest year-on-year increase since March 2009.
The global market is also facing demand rationing. When the price is converted to Australian dollars (1 CAD=1.09 AUD), the ICE rapeseed futures price was 986.23 AUD/ton on August 18th, and has risen to 1000 AUD/ton in recent days, providing Australian growers with the opportunity to make a fortune while shifting higher costs to buyers.
From the weather perspective, the weather forecast for the next seven days shows that most areas of the Canadian grasslands will experience rain, which will prolong the uncertainty of yield scale.
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